Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-27 20.218452 22.029881 24.037858 26.450849 29.302288 32.604545 36.779463
2024-11-03 17.435580 19.787577 22.590871 26.255997 31.048403 37.305250 46.485368
2024-11-10 15.673422 18.325576 21.663789 26.331856 32.987458 42.703936 59.360527
2024-11-17 14.432675 17.270981 21.002041 26.520596 35.015780 48.821363 76.824232
2024-11-24 13.460499 16.407950 20.421311 26.644937 36.900732 55.370548 100.364887
2024-12-01 12.566908 15.533134 19.682090 26.360322 38.000542 60.954066 128.217799
2024-12-08 11.907535 14.905808 19.204892 26.373621 39.580055 68.234830 173.474022
2024-12-15 11.286067 14.269894 18.633767 26.123654 40.584533 74.793871 234.784819
2024-12-22 10.742808 13.699638 18.098445 25.842472 41.444877 81.563792 330.300485
2024-12-29 10.279238 13.210034 17.638322 25.619809 42.367885 89.226236 505.936121
2025-01-05 9.881624 12.789957 17.248274 25.464849 43.402742 98.174263 911.894688
2025-01-12 9.440660 12.276329 16.664769 24.873542 43.285489 103.157194 1636.178270
2025-01-19 9.323826 12.255957 16.895391 25.885159 47.432500 130.292492 NaN
2025-01-26 9.000360 11.894477 16.524978 25.660790 48.342755 144.531719 NaN
2025-02-02 8.749905 11.633648 16.306066 25.717703 50.076292 167.147404 NaN
2025-02-09 8.537497 11.420931 16.153188 25.891930 52.239180 198.942031 NaN
2025-02-16 8.332394 11.208413 15.983923 26.008179 54.296681 238.466345 NaN
2025-02-23 8.086839 10.917979 15.655577 25.733534 55.013487 269.773280 NaN
2025-03-02 7.897636 10.710884 15.464104 25.745707 56.756010 326.408536 NaN
2025-03-09 7.687609 10.460031 15.176983 25.505400 57.540051 378.784985 NaN
2025-03-16 7.486966 10.216592 14.889693 25.235194 58.157181 439.978130 NaN
2025-03-23 7.305422 9.997959 14.636575 25.021207 58.958657 525.040983 NaN
2025-03-30 7.142310 9.804026 14.419269 24.872269 60.009260 652.460552 NaN